The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has announced a significant discovery of untapped oil and gas reserves in the Mowry Composite Total Petroleum System, a geological formation stretching across Wyoming, Colorado, and Utah. The Department of the Interior (DOI) revealed that the new assessment estimates 473 million barrels of oil and 27 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas remain recoverable in the region. This marks a substantial increase from the 90 million barrels and 7.3 tcf extracted since exploration began in the 1950s.
DOI Secretary Doug Burgum emphasized the importance of this discovery in reinforcing the nation’s energy independence and supporting economic growth in the western states. “Public lands in Southwestern Wyoming hold significant potential,” Burgum stated, adding that updated scientific evaluations will help policymakers and industry leaders make informed decisions about energy development, job creation, and environmental stewardship.
Additionally, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) has released updated estimates for the Gulf of Mexico, showing a 22.6% increase in proven oil and gas reserves. With an added 1.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe), the total now stands at 7.04 billion boe. BOEM’s analysis involved over 140 fields and 37,000 reservoirs, indicating vast opportunities in the region. The Gulf is now estimated to contain 29.59 billion barrels of oil and 54.84 tcf of gas in undiscovered reserves.
Industry Skepticism Grows Despite Expansion Push
While the Trump administration continues to champion increased drilling under slogans like “drill, baby, drill,” industry leaders are expressing concern over market volatility and economic instability. In a Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas survey conducted earlier this year, many oil executives criticized the administration’s tariff policies and the unpredictability of the energy market. One executive called the administration’s strategy “a disaster for the commodity markets,” adding that the populist energy agenda lacks long-term viability.
Others highlighted the disconnect between political messaging and market realities. “Drill, baby, drill does not work with $50 per barrel oil,” another executive remarked, noting that fluctuating oil prices have already prompted firms to scale back capital expenditures and reduce production targets for 2025 and 2026.
Even major energy players are sounding the alarm. Diamondback Energy CEO Travis Stice recently stated that U.S. onshore oil production has likely already peaked, attributing the decline to falling crude prices. ExxonMobil’s Upstream President, Liam Mallon, also downplayed the likelihood of a production surge under a second Trump term, adding to the industry’s growing sense of caution.
Shale Oil Faces Decline as Global Competition Heats Up
Despite the discovery of new oil and gas reserves, the U.S. shale industry may be approaching a period of decline. Analysts at Goehring & Rozencwajg LLC predict that U.S. shale output is entering a long-term downturn, driven more by natural resource depletion than regulatory barriers. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) supports this view, having projected that peak shale output occurred in 2023.
At the same time, OPEC+ is strengthening its position, accelerating the reversal of production cuts in a bid to reclaim market share. Unlike a decade ago, when U.S. shale remained competitive by slashing costs, producers now face rising operational expenses and weaker profit margins. The combination of global price pressure and internal cost inflation is making it harder for American firms to maintain output.
As new discoveries emerge, the U.S. energy sector must now navigate an increasingly complex environment defined not just by abundant resources but by shifting geopolitical dynamics, market unpredictability, and the looming challenge of sustainable energy production.
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