Top executives from global energy firms Baker Hughes and Woodside Energy are closely watching the escalating conflict between Iran-Israel Tensions but are refraining from making concrete predictions about oil prices. The latest unrest saw Israel launch strikes on Iran’s nuclear and military sites, reportedly killing key nuclear scientists and military officials. This heightened geopolitical volatility has raised concerns over global energy supply routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for oil shipments.
Speaking at the Energy Asia conference in Kuala Lumpur, Baker Hughes CEO Lorenzo Simonelli emphasized the unpredictability of oil markets in such a volatile landscape. “Never try and predict the price of oil, because there’s one sure thing: You’re going to be wrong,” he stated during an interview. Simonelli described the past 96 hours as “very fluid” and called for de-escalation while signaling that his company would continue to monitor the evolving situation rather than act on speculation.
Strait of Hormuz in Spotlight
Meg O’Neill, CEO of Australia’s Woodside Energy, echoed Simonelli’s caution, highlighting how the geopolitical shock has already led to sharp movements in forward pricing. The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, has become a focal point for energy analysts and investors. While the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) reported on Sunday that the Strait remains operational, it acknowledged ongoing concerns over a possible blockade.
“If the Strait were to be blocked, it would dramatically affect global oil prices as countries scramble to secure their energy needs,” O’Neill noted. Iran-Israel Tensions has reportedly weighed closing the strategic waterway in retaliation, though no formal steps have been confirmed. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has previously labeled the Strait as the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint, underlining the magnitude of risk associated with any disruption there.
Geopolitics Overrules Prediction Models
Despite increasing demand for clarity, both Simonelli and O’Neill were united in their reluctance to offer forecasts. O’Neill emphasized the historic link between energy markets and geopolitical conflict, referencing major past disruptions such as World War II and the 1970s oil crisis. “There are many things we can forecast,” she said, “but the price of oil in five years is not something I would try to put a bet on.”
Instead of offering numerical predictions, the CEOs underscored a strategy of caution and flexibility. Both companies intend to adopt a wait-and-watch stance, adjusting their operations based on how the situation unfolds. As the energy sector navigates through geopolitical turbulence amid Iran-Israel tensions, industry leaders appear more focused on resilience and adaptability than speculative forecasting.
With the Middle East once again at the heart of energy market anxieties, the path forward remains uncertain. For now, energy giants are prioritizing preparedness over prediction.
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