The latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey has revealed the projected price trajectory of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, as predicted by executives from 124 oil and gas firms. The survey, released last week, gathered insights on expected oil prices over the next five years, along with breakeven costs for operating and drilling.
Oil Price Projections: A Gradual Rise Expected
According to the survey, industry leaders forecast that WTI crude oil will reach $68 per barrel in the next six months and $70 per barrel within a year. By 2027, they expect prices to rise to $82 per barrel. These figures represent a slight adjustment from the previous quarter’s survey, which projected $69 per barrel in six months and $80 per barrel in five years.
When specifically asked about their end-of-2025 predictions, 129 firms provided an average forecast of $68.32 per barrel, with estimates ranging from $50 to $100 per barrel. This is slightly lower than the previous survey’s $71.13 per barrel projection. At the time of the survey, the spot price of WTI crude price stood at $67.60 per barrel.
Operational Costs and Breakeven Prices
The survey also assessed the minimum WTI Crude Price needed to cover operating expenses for existing wells across key oil-producing regions. 83 exploration and production firms participated in this analysis, with results showing:
- Eagle Ford: $26 per barrel
- Permian (Delaware): $33 per barrel
- Permian (Midland): $35 per barrel
- Other U.S. (Shale): $41 per barrel
- Other U.S. (Non-shale): $45 per barrel
- Permian (Other): $45 per barrel
On average, firms require $41 per barrel to sustain operations, an increase from $39 per barrel in the previous year. The report highlighted that nearly all companies can cover their operating costs at current oil prices. Large firms, producing 10,000 barrels per day or more, reported an average operational breakeven of $31 per barrel, while smaller firms needed $44 per barrel.
Breakeven Costs for Drilling New Wells
The survey further examined the minimum WTI Crude Price needed to profitably drill new wells. 81 firms responded, revealing the following regional breakeven prices:
- Permian (Midland): $61 per barrel
- Eagle Ford & Permian (Delaware): $62 per barrel
- Other U.S. (Shale): $63 per barrel
- Other U.S. (Non-shale): $66 per barrel
- Permian (Other): $70 per barrel
The overall breakeven price for new drilling stood at $65 per barrel, a slight increase from $64 per barrel in last year’s survey. Large firms required $61 per barrel to profitably drill, while smaller firms needed $66 per barrel.
The Dallas Fed Energy Survey, conducted quarterly, provides a timely assessment of energy sector activity in the Eleventh District, where many leading oil and gas firms operate. As global energy markets remain volatile, these insights offer valuable projections for the future of oil prices and industry profitability.
