Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and six other producers, are expected to discuss a possible increase in crude output during a virtual meeting on Sunday. The talks come as global oil prices continue to decline, prompting renewed focus on balancing supply and demand in international markets.
The group, informally known as the “Voluntary Eight” (V8), may consider raising production by up to 500,000 barrels per day (bpd). Market analysts, however, differ on the likely scale of any adjustment.
Earlier forecasts suggested a smaller increase of around 137,000 bpd from November, similar to October’s rise. Recent price trends — with Brent crude falling below $65 a barrel, an eight percent drop in a week — have heightened expectations that the group may opt for a more substantial move to stabilize markets.
In a statement on Tuesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) urged accurate reporting and noted that discussions remain ongoing. The group reaffirmed its commitment to ensuring balanced and stable energy markets through coordinated production strategies.
Barbara Lambrecht, an analyst at Commerzbank, said the group has often adjusted production more quickly than expected. “OPEC+ has shown flexibility in responding to market signals,” she said.
Responding to market dynamics
In recent months, Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) has gradually adjusted its production strategy to align with shifting global conditions. After a period of output restraint to support prices, the alliance has taken steps to meet steady demand growth while maintaining balance in supply.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), oil production from several non-OPEC+ countries, including the United States, Brazil, and Canada, has reached or is near record levels. The IEA’s latest report noted that global oil demand is expected to grow by about 700,000 bpd in both 2025 and 2026, suggesting stable consumption trends despite regional variations.
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC ) own forecast remains slightly higher, projecting growth of 1.3 million bpd in 2025 and 1.4 million bpd in 2026. The organization emphasized that ongoing collaboration between producers is key to supporting market stability amid evolving supply dynamics.
Tamas Varga of PVM Oil Associates said current data indicates that supply growth is catching up with demand. “Markets appear well supplied for the near term, and OPEC+ is likely evaluating how best to maintain equilibrium,” he said.
Production capacity considerations
Some member countries may approach the decision cautiously, citing production capacity and operational factors. Analysts note that external elements—such as maintenance schedules, logistical constraints, and regional output variations—can affect how quickly certain producers adjust output levels.
“Each member nation faces unique conditions influencing its production capacity,” said Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy. “The upcoming meeting will likely focus on aligning these factors with broader market objectives.”
Industry observers expect that the group will continue its gradual approach to managing supply, aiming to avoid significant market disruptions while supporting price stability.
Outlook remains balanced
While no final decision has been confirmed, a moderate production increase remains the most widely expected outcome of Sunday’s discussions. The move would demonstrate OPEC+’s ongoing role in promoting a balanced oil market responsive to both consumer demand and producer needs.
With global inventories stable and demand growth steady, the alliance faces the challenge of sustaining market confidence amid fluctuating prices. Regardless of the final figure, the upcoming meeting is viewed as part of OPEC+’s broader effort to maintain long-term stability in the energy sector.
Officials are expected to release a statement following the virtual meeting summarizing the group’s decisions and outlook for the months ahead.
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