India Shifts Oil Imports Amid Refinery Maintenance
India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, saw a notable shift in its crude oil sources in November, favoring Middle Eastern suppliers over Russia. This development came as some Indian refineries underwent maintenance, reducing their spot purchases of Russian crude. According to ship-tracking data obtained by Reuters, India imported 1.52 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil in November, marking a 13% drop compared to October.
While Russian exports declined, imports from the Middle East rose by 10.8% month-on-month, signaling a rebalancing of India’s crude sources. Over the past two years, Russia had emerged as India’s largest oil supplier due to its competitive pricing. However, in November, its share of India’s crude oil imports dipped to 32%, while Middle Eastern exporters claimed 48% of the market—a nine-month high.
Middle Eastern Oil Gains Dominance
The surge in Middle Eastern crude imports can be attributed to annual supply contracts that Indian refiners continued to honor, even as they scaled back spot purchases from Russia. This shift coincided with a broader decline in Russia’s crude exports by sea, particularly from its Baltic and Black Sea ports. These routes are major departure points for shipments to India, and lower activity in November impacted Russia’s overall export volumes.
Despite the dip, Russia maintained its position as India’s top oil supplier in November, outpacing Iraq and Saudi Arabia. However, the rise in Middle Eastern crude exports indicates a growing competition in the region’s oil markets, with Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, increasing its shipments to Asia during the same period.
Broader Market Dynamics at Play
Russia’s reduced crude shipments to India reflect a broader trend of declining purchases from its key Asian markets—India and China. Bloomberg’s tanker-tracking data corroborates this, showing a drop in Russian oil flows to the world’s most crucial oil-importing region. In contrast, Middle Eastern producers have capitalized on this decline, boosting their exports to secure a larger share of the Asian market.
As maintenance activities conclude, Indian refiners may revisit their purchasing strategies, balancing spot deals with long-term contracts. For now, the rise of Middle Eastern oil exports highlights their growing influence in the Indian market, signaling a shift in trade dynamics that could shape the region’s energy landscape in the months to come.
