Although the United States and China recently agreed to a temporary halt in their ongoing trade conflict, China is not expected to resume energy imports from the U.S. anytime soon. Earlier this week, both countries announced a 90-day de-escalation period that significantly reduced tariffs on each other’s goods. The U.S. slashed its tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, while China lowered its tariffs on U.S. products from 125% to 10%. However, energy products—particularly U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG), coal, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)—remain largely excluded from this thaw.
Despite the temporary relief, industry analysts warn that the agreement is merely a short-term truce with uncertain outcomes. Because of the limited time window and the broader uncertainty surrounding long-term negotiations, China is not expected to reverse its near-zero imports of U.S. energy goods over the summer. The Chinese government had already curbed energy imports from the U.S. as early as February, following its initial retaliatory tariffs against Washington’s earlier escalations.
Energy Trade Remains Economically Unviable
China’s decision to maintain minimal U.S. energy imports is rooted in both economic and strategic calculations. Analysts from Kpler, a global commodity analytics firm, note that weak demand, persistent tariffs, and sufficient domestic inventories continue to suppress Chinese interest in U.S. LNG. According to Kpler, U.S. LNG is still subject to a 25% Chinese tariff, making it financially unattractive for Chinese buyers despite the broader tariff pause.
In the first quarter alone, U.S. LNG exports to China plummeted by 70%, and no shipments have been recorded in over 40 days. Likewise, imports of U.S. LPG dropped by 36%, and metallurgical coal used for steel production declined by 62% year-on-year in March. China has shown it can easily source its energy needs—such as oil, LNG, and coal—from alternative suppliers, and these American commodities only represent a small share of China’s total energy imports.
Even though a potential future trade agreement could lead to a partial restoration of U.S. energy sales to China, previous experience casts doubt. For instance, under the Phase-One deal during former President Donald Trump’s administration, China failed to meet its pledged energy purchase commitments, in part due to COVID-19 disruptions.
Future Trade Talks Likely to Be Slow and Complex
The path to a comprehensive trade agreement between the U.S. and China remains complex and uncertain. Negotiations on detailed terms have yet to begin, and trust between the two economic powers continues to be low. J.P. Morgan analysts point out that while the current deal is a welcome pause, it lacks clear direction for a long-term resolution.
Energy trade is expected to be one of several contentious points in any future talks, alongside U.S. agricultural products and strategically important sectors such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. The mixed signals from the U.S. administration—balancing hawkish and dovish rhetoric—suggest that future trade policy with China will likely remain fragmented and unpredictable.
Until a more definitive agreement is reached, U.S. energy exporters may remain sidelined as China continues to diversify its sourcing strategy and cautiously navigate geopolitical uncertainties.
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