Oil prices dip slipped on Thursday, extending losses from the previous session after U.S. data showed an increase in crude inventories. The rise in stockpiles heightened concerns that global oil supplies are sufficient to meet demand in the near term.
Brent crude futures held steady at $62.71 a barrel at 0645 GMT after a 3.8% drop a day earlier. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined 3 cents, or 0.1%, to $58.46 a barrel, following a 4.2% fall on Wednesday.
Market sources citing data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) said U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels for the week ending Nov. 7. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles, however, declined during the same period.
Oil price shifts supply-demand forecast
Prices also weakened after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) adjusted its outlook, projecting that global oil supply will slightly exceed demand in 2026. The revision marked a change from its earlier forecast of a deficit, signaling the group’s growing acknowledgment of a potential oversupply in the medium term.
“Recent weakness seems to be driven by OPEC’s revision of the supply-demand balance in 2026,” said Suvro Sarkar, energy sector team lead at DBS Bank. “This confirms the group now sees a possible supply glut, in contrast to its more bullish stance earlier.”
Sarkar added that while the new forecast aligns with OPEC’s recent decision to pause the unwinding of voluntary production cuts in the first quarter, it reflects a more realistic market view rather than a fundamental shift.
OPEC said the projected surplus is expected mainly due to increased output from OPEC+ members, which include Russia and other allied producers.
Analysts see market pressure continuing
“OPEC’s signal of a supply surplus unleashed previously pent-up bearish sentiment, while the U.S. inventory build added further pressure,” said Yang An, analyst at Haitong Securities. “This has pushed Oil prices dip to continue sliding into Thursday morning.”
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected to release official inventory data later on Thursday, which may confirm or revise the API’s estimates. The EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook also projected stronger U.S. production growth this year than previously forecast, suggesting continued supply-side strength.
The agency added that global oil inventories are likely to grow through 2026 as production outpaces demand, increasing downward pressure on prices.
Outlook remains cautiously stable
Despite the current weakness, analysts said OPEC oil price could find support near the $60 per barrel level. Some expect temporary disruptions in Russian exports once stricter sanctions take effect, potentially offsetting part of the current surplus.
“There should be considerable support for Oil prices dip around $60 a barrel, especially given the risk of short-term supply disruptions,” Sarkar said.
Global energy markets remain sensitive to shifts in inventory data, production forecasts, and geopolitical developments. With OPEC moderating its output plans and U.S. production continuing to rise, traders are watching closely for signs of balance between supply and demand in the coming months.
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