European Commission Eyes Legal Loophole to Exit Russian Energy Contracts
The European Commission is reportedly weighing a bold move that could allow EU companies to walk away from long-term Russian gas contracts without incurring financial penalties. According to sources familiar with the matter, the Commission is studying the use of “force majeure” clauses as a potential legal justification. This provision, commonly used to excuse parties from contractual obligations under extraordinary circumstances, would protect importers from facing costly penalties for breaking existing agreements with Russian suppliers.
This initiative is part of a broader strategy aimed at eliminating the EU’s reliance on Russian fossil fuels by 2027. A roadmap outlining this plan is expected to be unveiled on May 6, after several delays. When questioned previously about the postponement, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reaffirmed the EU’s commitment to phasing out Russian gas, calling it “an absolute must” given the geopolitical landscape and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
The move would fulfill a promise made by EU leaders in 2022 to cut dependence on Russian oil and gas, especially as energy revenues have been seen as funding Russia’s military actions in Ukraine.
Russian Gas Imports Persist Despite Reduction Goals
Despite the stated goals, recent figures suggest that the EU’s reliance on Russian energy remains substantial. In 2024, the EU imported nearly 52 billion cubic meters of Russian gas, a significant drop from 150 billion cubic meters in 2021, yet still considerable. Moreover, imports of Russian liquified natural gas (LNG) reached record levels, and total gas imports from Russia increased by 18%, according to energy think tank Ember.
Even pipeline flows, expected to decline sharply, have remained steady in some areas. While gas transit through Ukraine ceased on January 1, 2025, following the expiration of a key agreement, deliveries through the TurkStream pipeline rose 11% in February alone, totaling 56 million cubic meters per day. Ember warned that such increases could jeopardize the EU’s 2027 phaseout timeline.
In response to this continued dependence, some EU officials are looking to expand LNG imports from the United States, especially following Donald Trump’s return to the White House, which has renewed transatlantic energy dialogue.
Industry Divided on Future of Russian Gas Amid Market Fluctuations
Despite the EU’s public stance, murmurs within the energy industry suggest a possible shift back toward Russian gas if the geopolitical situation improves. Didier Holleaux, executive vice-president at France’s Engie—formerly one of Gazprom’s top European clients—hinted that under “reasonable peace” conditions in Ukraine, gas flows from Russia could resume at 60 to 70 billion cubic meters annually, including LNG.
In Germany, where Russian gas once supplied over half of national demand, some business leaders are also expressing interest in reestablishing these energy ties. Christof Guenther, managing director of the InfraLeuna chemical park, remarked that reopening pipelines could do more to reduce energy costs than current subsidies, though he acknowledged it remains a “taboo topic.”
Meanwhile, Russia’s own energy sector is facing financial pressure. Following recent U.S. tariff actions, Russian crude oil exports declined to their lowest levels since February. Between mid-March and April 13, shipments fell to 3.13 million barrels per day, with weekly revenues dropping by about $80 million to $1.29 billion—the lowest since July 2023.
As the EU prepares its next move, the tension between geopolitical imperatives and economic realities continues to shape the future of European energy policy.
