Pledges and Challenges Since COP28
In a landmark decision at the COP28 climate talks in Dubai last year, nearly 120 countries pledged to triple global renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030. The ambitious plan, hailed by the International Energy Agency (IEA) as pivotal for reducing emissions and curbing global heating, set a transformative agenda for the energy sector.
Despite these commitments, progress has been uneven. To achieve the COP28 target, global renewable energy capacity must increase from 3.4 terawatts (TW) in 2022 to over 11TW by the end of the decade. However, reports from the energy think tank Ember reveal a lack of significant updates to national renewable energy targets. Of the over 130 countries involved, only eight had revised their goals by October 2024, leaving the global industry on track to reach just 7.2TW by 2030—far short of the required figure.
Francesco La Camera, director general of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), highlighted the “significant gaps” threatening the COP28 objectives. He urged decisive action at COP29 to realign global efforts.
Industry Momentum and Solar’s Central Role
While government targets lag, the renewable energy industry shows promise of exceeding these limited ambitions. According to the IEA, renewable capacity could match the combined power systems of China, the EU, India, and the US by 2030. Solar energy is projected to lead this surge, accounting for 80% of new global renewable capacity due to declining costs and robust support from nations like China. Wind energy is also expected to grow at double the rate of the previous six years.
However, achieving the COP28 goal depends on accelerating infrastructure development, particularly power grids. The IEA emphasizes the need to connect at least 1.6TW of renewable capacity that is currently awaiting grid integration. If addressed, renewable energy growth could reach 2.7 times its 2022 levels by 2030—falling just short of the pledged target but still marking significant progress.
Energy Efficiency: A Lagging Priority
While renewable energy efforts show momentum, energy efficiency—a critical component of the COP28 pledge—remains underwhelming. To meet the goal of doubling efficiency by 2030, annual energy intensity improvement rates must rise to 4%, compared to 2% in 2022. Yet, progress has stalled at a mere 1% annually for 2023 and 2024, half the pace achieved in the previous decade.
Fatih Birol, IEA’s executive director, stressed the importance of energy efficiency as a cornerstone for reducing oil and gas demand and enabling affordable energy transitions. Positive steps include the EU’s zero-emission building initiatives, China’s stricter appliance standards, and the US’s enhanced fuel economy regulations. However, the IEA calls for faster implementation of policies worldwide to accelerate efficiency gains.
With COP29 approaching, the global focus remains on bridging the gaps in renewable energy targets and energy efficiency measures to meet the ambitious goals set in Dubai.
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