U.S. power consumption will reach new records in 2025 and 2026 due to rising electricity use from data centers, electrification trends and stronger customer demand, the Energy Information Administration said Tuesday in its latest outlook.
The EIA said national power demand will rise to 4,199 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025 and 4,267 billion kWh in 2026, exceeding the previous record of 4,110 billion kWh in 2024.
The agency attributed part of the increase to growing electricity loads from artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency data centers, along with more homes and businesses switching from fossil fuels to electric heating and transportation. “We are seeing sustained structural growth in electricity consumption, especially in sectors tied to digital infrastructure,” said EIA Forecast Administrator Joe DeCarolis.
Residential, Commercial and Industrial Sales Climb
The outlook showed broad-based expansion across customer classes. Residential power sales are expected to rise to 1,516 billion kWh in 2025, topping the prior record of 1,509 billion kWh in 2022. Commercial sales will reach 1,486 billion kWh, surpassing the 2024 high of 1,451 billion kWh. Industrial consumption is forecast at 1,055 billion kWh, slightly below the all-time high of 1,064 billion kWh in 2000.
“The data indicates strong activity across the economy,” said Laura Martin, senior energy economist at EnergyNow Media. “Even with efficiency gains, the surge in computing workloads is offsetting traditional demand reductions.”
Renewables Expand as Natural Gas Share Slips
The EIA Forecast expects the power generation mix to shift as renewable output grows. Natural gas is projected to account for 40% of generation in 2025 and 2026, down from 42% in 2024. Coal’s share will rise to 17% in 2025 before falling back to 16% in 2026.
Renewable sources, including wind and solar, will expand from 22% in 2024 to 24% in 2025 and 25% in 2026. Nuclear generation will decline from 19% in 2024 to 18% in each of the next two years.
“This is a gradual but clear shift toward lower-carbon resources,” said Rachel Kim, an energy policy analyst at the Clean Grid Institute. “The rise of renewables is beginning to reshape the generation landscape.”
Gas Sales Rise Across Sectors but Fall for Power Generation
The EIA forecast increased natural gas sales for most customer categories in 2025. Residential gas use is projected at 13.2 billion cubic feet per day, commercial consumption at 9.8 bcfd, and industrial demand at 23.7 bcfd. Those figures approach or match historic highs from earlier decades.
Gas consumption for power generation, however, is expected to decline to 35.9 bcfd in 2025, down from the record 36.8 bcfd in 2024, as renewable energy sources contribute more electricity to the grid.
Analysts said the shift reflects long-term market changes. “Gas remains critical for reliability, but it is no longer the only growth driver,” Martin said.
The EIA will release updated forecasts in its monthly short-term energy outlooks as new data becomes available.
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