Crude oil prices inched upward on July 25, 2025, as investor sentiment improved following signs of progress in global trade negotiations. Hopes for a breakthrough in US–EU trade talks, along with confirmation of a US–Japan trade deal, buoyed expectations for stronger economic growth and energy demand.
According to Reuters, Brent crude rose by $0.20 to $69.56 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) advanced $0.15 to $66.18.
Oil markets had already gained about 1% the previous day, driven in part by news of Russia curbing gasoline exports, tightening short-term Venezuelan oil supply boost 2025 , and supporting prices. Meanwhile, US crude inventories dropped by 3.2 million barrels last week—twice the expected draw—further reinforcing bullish momentum in the market.
Analysts at ING noted that optimism over potential trade resolutions appears to be “more than offsetting” concerns over higher Venezuelan exports in the near term.
Supply Watch: Venezuela’s Potential Comeback in Focus
Despite the upbeat trade sentiment, oil traders remain cautious as the US is reportedly preparing to authorize limited oil operations in Venezuela. If approved, companies like Chevron would be allowed to resume certain projects with state-owned PDVSA, although strict conditions would apply—particularly bans on direct payments to the Maduro government.
This move could unlock up to 200,000 barrels per day in additional Venezuelan crude, relieving some pressure on heavy crude refiners in the US. As noted by Reuters, the policy shift may lead to more barrels entering the Venezuelan oil supply chain as early as next month (source).
Concurrently, there were minor disruptions in Venezuelan oil supply boost 2025 chains, including Kazakh oil export delays via the Black Sea and holdups in Azeri BTC crude shipments from Turkey’s Ceyhan port. These developments, while limited in impact, contributed to short-term volatility.
Outlook: Key Data Ahead as Brent Eyes $70 Threshold
As the week closes, Brent crude is up roughly 0.4%, while WTI has slipped by around 1.4% since last Friday. Despite mixed weekly performance, analysts suggest oil prices are finding a floor near the $64–$65 range, with potential to climb toward $70, depending on upcoming economic indicators.
Traders are now watching for next week’s data releases on Chinese factory output, US jobs reports, and consumer inflation, which could influence both demand forecasts and monetary policy decisions.z
In summary, while geopolitical risks and Venezuelan oil supply boost 2025 uncertainties persist, oil markets appear to be holding steady amid trade optimism and inventory draws. The potential return of Venezuelan oil looms large, but for now, investors are betting on diplomacy and demand recovery to lead the market.
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